Pengaruh Output, Populasi, Energi Terbarukan dan Human Capital terhadap Emisi Karbon di Indonesia: Prespektif STIRPAT Model

Putri Ayu, Weriantoni Weriantoni, Poni Oktaviani, Anggi Novita Sari

Abstract


Carbon dioxide emissions are a strategic issue in environmental management because they are closely linked to economic activity, energy structure, demographic pressure, and the quality of human capital. This study examines the effects of GDP, population density, renewable energy consumption, and the human capital index on CO₂ emissions in Indonesia using an extended STIRPAT model. Annual time-series data for 1990–2021 are estimated with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, bounds testing, and an error correction model. The long-run results show that renewable energy consumption significantly reduces CO₂ emissions, while population density significantly increases them. GDP and the human capital index are statistically insignificant. In the short run, emission persistence and changes in GDP positively affect CO₂ emissions at the 5 percent significance level. A negative and significant error correction term confirms adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. Robustness checks based on the AIC and BIC criteria show that the negative effect of renewable energy remains consistent. The findings suggest that emission control in Indonesia is more effectively directed toward accelerating the energy transition and managing spatial-demographic pressure than toward aggregate economic growth or general educational improvement.

Keywords


CO₂ emissions; STIRPAT model; ARDL; renewable energy; human capital; population density; environmental management; Indonesia

Full Text:

PDF

References


Apergis, N., Payne, J. E., 2010. Renewable energy consumption and growth in 20 OECD countries: A panel investigation. Energy Economics, 32(3), 406–412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.09.003

A’yun, I. Q., Nasir, M. S., Nasir, Z. A. B., Abdulkarim, F. M., Hussain, M., 2023. Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in Indonesia and India: Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 24(2), 320–330. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v24i2.23191

Azam, A., Rafiq, M., Shafique, M., Yuan, J., 2021. An empirical analysis of the non-linear effects of natural gas, nuclear energy, renewable energy and ICT-trade in leading CO2 emitter countries: Policy towards CO2 mitigation and economic sustainability. Journal of Environmental Management, 286, 112232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112232

Barro, R. J., Lee, J. W., 2013. A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010. Journal of Development Economics, 104, 184–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.10.001

Ben Jebli, M., Farhani, S., Guesmi, K., 2020. Renewable energy, CO2 emissions and value added: Empirical evidence from countries with different income levels. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 53, 402–410. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.12.009

Bergougui, B., 2024. Moving toward environmental mitigation in Algeria: Asymmetric impact of fossil fuel energy, renewable energy and technological innovation on CO2 emissions. Energy Strategy Reviews, 51, 101281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101281

Broadstock, D. C., Li, J., Zhang, D., 2016. Efficiency snakes and energy ladders: A (meta-)frontier demand analysis of electricity consumption efficiency in Chinese households. Energy Policy, 91, 383–396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.01.009

Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., Evans, J. M., 1975. Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x

Cheng, C., Ren, X., Wang, Z., Yan, C., 2019. Heterogeneous impacts of renewable energy and environmental patents on CO2 emission: Evidence from the BRIICS. Science of the Total Environment, 668, 1328–1338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.063

Dehghan Shabani, Z. 2024. Renewable energy and CO2 emissions: Does human capital matter?, Energy Reports, 11, 3474–3491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2024.03.021

Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A., 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531

Dietz, T., Rosa, E. A., 1997. Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 94(1), 175–179. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.94.1.175

Ehrlich, P. R., Holdren, J. P., 1971. Impact of population growth. Science, 171(3977), 1212–1217. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.171.3977.1212

Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R., Timmer, M. P., 2015. The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150–3182. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130954

Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Le Quéré, C., Li, H., Luijkx, I. T., Olsen, A., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Alin, S. R., Arneth, A., Arora, V., Bates, N. R., Becker, M., Bellouin, N., Berghoff, C. F., Bittig, H. C., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Campbell, K., Chamberlain, M. A., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Colligan, T., Decayeux, J., Djeutchouang, L. M., Dou, X., Duran Rojas, C., Enyo, K., Evans, W., Fay, A. R., Feely, R. A., Ford, D. J., Foster, A., Gasser, T., Gehlen, M., Gkritzalis, T., Grassi, G., Gregor, L., Gruber, N., Gürses, Ö., Harris, I., Hefner, M., Heinke, J., Hurtt, G. C., Iida, Y., Ilyina, T., Jacobson, A. R., Jain, A. K., Jarníková, T., Jersild, A., Jiang, F., Jin, Z., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Knauer, J., Korsbakken, J. I., Lan, X., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Liu, Z., Liu, J., Ma, L., Maksyutov, S., Marland, G., Mayot, N., McGuire, P. C., Metzl, N., Monacci, N. M., Morgan, E. J., Nakaoka, S.-I., Neill, C., Niwa, Y., Nützel, T., Olivier, L., Ono, T., Palmer, P. I., Pierrot, D., Qin, Z., Resplandy, L., Roobaert, A., Rosan, T. M., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., Smallman, T. L., Smith, S. M., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Steinhoff, T., Sun, Q., Sutton, A. J., Séférian, R., Takao, S., Tatebe, H., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Torres, O., Tourigny, E., Tsujino, H., Tubiello, F., van der Werf, G., Wanninkhof, R., Wang, X., Yang, D., Yang, X., Yu, Z., Yuan, W., Yue, X., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., Zeng, J., 2025, Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025,

Gnangoin, T. Y., Kassi, D. F., Edjoukou, A. J. R., Kongrong, O. Y., Yuqing, D., 2022. Renewable energy, non-renewable energy, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the newly emerging market economies: The moderating role of human capital. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1017721

Grodzicki, T., Jankiewicz, M., 2022. The impact of renewable energy and urbanization on CO2 emissions in Europe – Spatio-temporal approach. Environmental Development, 44, 100755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2022.100755

Grossman, G. M., Krueger, A. B., 1995. Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353–377. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443

Le, T. H., 2022. Connectedness between nonrenewable and renewable energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emission in Vietnam: New evidence from a wavelet analysis. Renewable Energy, 195, 442–454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.083

Li, B., Haneklaus, N., 2021. The role of renewable energy, fossil fuel consumption, urbanization and economic growth on CO2 emissions in China. Energy Reports, 7, 783–791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.09.194

Liddle, B., 2014. Impact of population, age structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: Evidence from macro-level, cross-country analyses. Population and Environment, 35(3), 286–304. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-013-0198-4

Narayan, P. K., 2005. The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103

Nathaniel, S. P., Iheonu, C. O., 2019. Carbon dioxide abatement in Africa: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption. Science of the Total Environment, 679, 337–345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.011

Njoh, A. J., 2021. Renewable energy as a determinant of inter-country differentials in CO2 emissions in Africa. Renewable Energy, 172, 1225–1232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.03.096

Our World in Data. 2025. CO₂ and greenhouse gas emissions. https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions

Pata, U. K., 2018. Renewable energy consumption, urbanization, financial development, income and CO2 emissions in Turkey: Testing EKC hypothesis with structural breaks. Journal of Cleaner Production, 187, 770–779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.236

Perman, R., Ma, Y., McGilvray, J., Common, M., 2003. Natural resource and environmental economics, 3rd ed. Pearson Education.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., 1999. An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strøm (Ed.), Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, 371–413. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139052221.011

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., Smith, R. J., 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

Psacharopoulos, G., 1994. Returns to investment in education: A global update. World Development, 22(9), 1325–1343. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(94)90007-8

Romer, P. M., 1990. Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), S71–S102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725

Sadorsky, P., 2009. Renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies. Energy Policy, 37(10), 4021–4028. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.05.003

Saidi, K., & Omri, A. (2020). Reducing CO2 emissions in OECD countries: Do renewable and nuclear energy matter?, Progress in Nuclear Energy, 126, 103425. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnucene.2020.103425

Sarkodie, S. A., Adams, S., Owusu, P. A., Leirvik, T., Ozturk, I., 2020. Mitigating degradation and emissions in China: The role of environmental sustainability, human capital and renewable energy. Science of the Total Environment, 719, 137530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137530

Tenaw, D., Hawitibo, A. L., 2021. Carbon decoupling and economic growth in Africa: Evidence from production and consumption-based carbon emissions. Resources, Environment and Sustainability, 6, 100040. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2021.100040

Wang, F., Shackman, J., Liu, X., 2017. Carbon emission flow in the power industry and provincial CO2 emissions: Evidence from cross-provincial secondary energy trading in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 159, 397–409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.05.007

World Bank. 2025. World development indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/

York, R., Rosa, E. A., Dietz, T., 2003. STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: Analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecological Economics, 46(3), 351–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(03)00188-5

You, Z., Li, L., Waqas, M., 2024. How do information and communication technology, human capital and renewable energy affect CO2 emission; New insights from BRI countries. Heliyon, 10(4), e26481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26481

Yuping, L., Ramzan, M., Xincheng, L., Murshed, M., Awosusi, A. A., Bah, S. I., Adebayo, T. S., 2021. Determinants of carbon emissions in Argentina: The roles of renewable energy consumption and globalization. Energy Reports, 7, 4747–4760. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.07.065

Zhang, S., Xie, W., Sun, S., Wu, F., Xue, Y., 2024. Nexus of green energy innovation, governance quality, and CO2 emissions in natural resource sector: The role of sustainable human development. Resources Policy, 88, 104493. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104493

Zivot, E., Andrews, D. W. K., 1992. Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1992.10509904




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v10i2.2771

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business Published by Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat
Adress: LPPM Universitas Batanghari, Jl.Slamet Ryadi, Broni-Jambi, Kec.Telanaipura, Kodepos: 36122, email: ekonomis.unbari@gmail.com, Phone: 0741-670700

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.