Analisis Determinan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia

Ammey Juniar Cahyaning Putri, Yuni Prihadi Utomo

Abstract


This study analyzes the effects of the policy interest rate, money supply, government expenditure, foreign direct investment, domestic investment, exports, and imports on Indonesia’s economic growth. The model is estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS) using annual time-series data for 1998–2022. The results show that money supply and imports have a positive and significant effect on GDP, whereas government expenditure and exports have a negative and significant effect. The interest rate, foreign direct investment, and domestic investment are insignificant. The estimated model satisfies tests for residual normality, no autocorrelation, homoscedasticity, and linearity, but several regressors exhibit multicollinearity. The evidence suggests that output over the sample period is more closely associated with liquidity and the composition of trade than with the policy rate or recorded investment flows. The policy implication is to raise the efficiency of public spending, diversify exports away from primary commodities, and steer imports toward intermediate inputs and capital goods, while keeping monetary liquidity supportive without generating inflation. The main limitations are the small sample, mixed units of measurement, and the risk of spurious regression in level time-series estimates.

Keywords


economic growth; government expenditure; international trade; money supply; ordinary least squares (OLS)

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v10i2.2021

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