Perbandingan Analisis Teknikal dengan Pendekatan Moving Average dan Parabolic SAR dalam Memprediksi Pengembalian Saham pada Indeks Saham LQ45

Isnaini Nuzula Agustin, Fariono Fariono.ong@gmail.com

Abstract


Along with the rapid development of the number of stock investors in Indonesia, technical analysis is needed to assist investors in their efforts to obtain optimal returns. This research was conducted to compare the performance of two types of technical analysis, namely moving average and parabolic sar. This research is a quantitative research with comparative analysis method. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling with the LQ45 index as the research object. The data is monthly data for the LQ45 index in the 2017-2021 period, so a total of 60 observations were obtained. Data analysis includes descriptive statistics and the Kruskal Wallis test. The test results show that there is no significant difference between the performance of the moving average indicator and the parabolic sar indicator. However, the parabolic sar shows higher prediction accuracy compared to the moving average. The results of this study are expected to support investors in choosing good technical indicators, so that they can obtain more accurate stock price prediction results to obtain optimal returns.


Keywords


comparison; LQ45; moving average; parabolic sar; return

Full Text:

PDF

References


Addinpujoartanto, N. A., & Darmawan, S. 2020. Pengaruh Overconfidence, Regret Aversion, Loss Aversion, dan Herding Bias Terhadap Keputusan Investasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Riset Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 13(3), 175–187. http://journals.usm.ac.id/index.php/jreb

Ardhianto, K. A., Mansur, M., & Wahono, B. 2018. Analisa Bandarmology Terhadap Profit Investor (Studi Kasus Saham Jakarta Islamic index Sektor Properti dan Real Estate yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun. Jurnal Riset Manajemen, 42–53. www.fe.unisma.ac.id

Arief, I. A. 2019, LQ-45, Indeks Saham yang Segera Miliki Hitungan Baru. CNBC Indonesia. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/investment/20190106154342-21-49297/lq-45-indeks-saham-yang-segera-miliki-hitungan-baru

Brama, A., & Rahmawati, W. T., 2019, Sekitar 90% Investor Saham Indonesia Gagal, Simak Ampuh Para Investor ini. Kontan. https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/sekitar-90-investor-saham-indonesia-gagal-simak-cara-ampuh-para-investor-ini

Chae, S., Shin, S.-Y., & Kong, I.-Y. 2011. A Study on the Automatic Adjustment of the Parabolic SAR by using the Fuzzy Logic. Journal of Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems, 21(2), 230–236.

Dai, R. M., Kostini, N., & Tresna, P. W. 2019. Pengaruh Behavioral Finance Terhadap Kinerja Keungan Pelaku Usaha Kecil Menengah Unggulan di Kota Cimahi. Jurnal Pemikiran Dan Penlitian Administrasi Bisnis Dan Kewirausahaan, 4(1), 57–62.

Faris, A. A., Mahmood, Z. M., & Al-Mayaahi, S. S. 2021. Building an Efficient Portfolio by using The Weighted Moving Average in The Light of The Global Pandemic (COVID19) (An applied study in the Iraq stock market). Journal of Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences, 9(4), 549–560.

Ghoziyah, I. M., & Permadhy, Y. T. 2022. Analisis Kinerja Reksa Dana Saham Dengan Metode Sharpe, Treynor, dan Jensen Selama Masa Pandemi. Jurnal Riset Manajemen Sains Indonesi, 13(1), 53–75.

Hafizah, N., Noviani, E., & Perdana, H. 2019. Analisis Teknikal Saham Lq-45 Menggunakan Indikator Bollinger Bands. Bimaster : Buletin Ilmiah Matematika, Statistika Dan Terapannya, 8(4), 943–950.

Hari, Y., & Dewi, L. P. 2017. Forecasting System Approach for Stock Trading with Relative Strength Index and Moving Average Indicator. Journal of Telecommunication, Electronic and Computer Engineering, 10(2–3), 25–29.

Hawaldar, I. T., Rohit, B., & Pinto, P. 2017. Testing of Weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from The Bahrain Bourse. Journal of Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 14(2), 376–385. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.14(2-2).2017.09

Jakpar, S., Tinggi, M., Tak, A. H., & Yi, C. W. 2018. Fundamental Analysis VS Technical Analysis: The Comparison of Two Analysis in Malaysia Stock Market. UNIMAS Review of Accounting and Finance, 1(1), 38–61.

KBBI. n.d.. No Titl. KBBI. https://kbbi.web.id/investasi

Khairudin, K., & Wandita, W. 2017. Analisis Pengaruh Rasio Profitabilitas, Debt To Equity Ratio (DER) dan Price To Book Value (PBV) Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Pertambangan di Indonesia. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.36448/jak.v8i1.826

KSEI. 2021. Statistik Pasar Modal Indonesia. https://www.ksei.co.id/files/Statistik_Publik_Desember_2021.pdf

Maharani, Y. A., & Mawardhi, W. 2022. Pengaruh Profitabilitas, Firm Size, Dan Growth Terhadap Nilai Perusahaan Dengan Struktur Modal Sebagai Variabel Intervening. Diponegoro Journal of Management, 11(1), 2–12.

Malini, H. 2019. Efficient Market Hypothesis and Market Anomalies of LQ 45 Index in Indonesia Stock Exchange. SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS, 3(2), 107. https://doi.org/10.29259/sijdeb.v3i2.107-121

Muis, I. S., Prajawati, M. I., & S, B. 2021. Analisis Teknikal Return Saham dengan Indikator-Indikator Bollinger Band, Parabolic SAR, dan Stochastic Oscillator. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 12(2), 143–153. https://doi.org/10.33059/jseb.v12i2.2467

Mutiara, I., & Agustian, E. 2020. Pengaruh Financial Literacy dan Financial Behavior terhadap Keputusan Investasi pada Ibu-Ibu PKK Kota Jambi. J-MAS (Jurnal Manajemen Dan Sains), 5(2), 263. https://doi.org/10.33087/jmas.v5i2.193

Nugroho, R. S. 2022, Enam Indikator Saham Terbaik yang Bisa Anda Gunakan! IDX Channel. https://www.idxchannel.com/milenomic/enam-indikator-saham-terbaik-yang-bisa-anda-gunakan

Octaviani, S., & Komalasarai, D. 2017. Pengaruh Likuiditas, Profitabilitas, dan Solvabilitas Terhadap Harga Saham (Studi Kasus pada Perusahaan Perbankan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Jurnal Akuntansi., 3(2), 77–89.

Oktavia, I., & Genjar, K. 2017. Sinergitas Quadruple Helix: e-Business dan Fintech sebagai Daya Dorong Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Lokal

Pramudya, R., & Ichsani, S. 2020. Technical Analysis To Determine Buying And Selling Signal In Stock Trade. International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486), 9(1), 58–67.

Prasetijo, A. B., Saputro, T. A., Windasari, I. P., & Windarto, Y. E. 2017. Proceedings, the 2017 4th International Conference on Information Technology, Computer, and Electrical Engineering (ICITACEE) : October 18-19, 2017, Semarang, Indonesia. International Conference on Information Technology, Computer, and Electrical Engineering, 41–44.

Putri, R. N. M. H., Primasari, N. S., & Khusnah, H. 2022. Return Analisis Teknikal Moving Average, Bollinger Band, dan Relative Strength Index pada Cryptocurrency. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 11(1), 22–30. http://jurnal.universitasputrabangsa.ac.id/index.php/jiak/index

Safitri, H., & Kurniasari, F. 2019. Analisis Institutional Ownership, Independent Commissioner, dan Dividend Policy Pada Nilai Perusahaan Sebagai Strategi Investasi Saham Perusahaan Startup di Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen Motivasi, 15(2), 40. https://doi.org/10.29406/jmm.v15i2.1739

Sisbintari, I. 2017. Sekilas Tentang Behavioral Finance. Jurnal Ilmiah Administrasi Bisnis Dan Inovasi, 1(2), 88–101. http://market.bisnis.com/read/20171222/

Wulandari, A. I., & Badjra, I. B. 2019. Pengaruh profitabilitas terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan lq-45 di bursa efek indonesia (BEI). E-Jurnal Manajemen Universitas Udayana, 8(9), 5722.

Yildirim, H. 2017. Behavioral Finance or Efficient Market Hypothesis? International Journal of Academic Value Studies (Javstudies), 3(11), 151–158. www.javstudies.com




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v7i1.769

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business Published by Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat
Adress: LPPM Universitas Batanghari, Jl.Slamet Ryadi, Broni-Jambi, Kec.Telanaipura, Kodepos: 36122, email: ekonomis.unbari@gmail.com, Phone: 0741-670700


Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.