Analisis Determinasi Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) di Provinsi Jambi

Ogi Saputra, Olin Anugra Heni, Julia Nur Aini

Abstract


Local own-source revenue (PAD) is a key indicator of fiscal autonomy under regional decentralization. This study examines the effects of gross regional domestic product (GRDP), inflation, government expenditure, population, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on PAD in Jambi Province from 2003 to 2025. A causal quantitative design is applied using annual time-series data from Statistics Indonesia and related agencies. The analysis employs a double-log multiple linear regression model. Partially, population has a positive and significant effect on PAD, while government expenditure is significant but negative. GRDP, inflation, and FDI are insignificant at the 5 percent level. Simultaneously, the five variables significantly affect PAD, with an R² of 98.25 percent. The findings indicate that PAD in Jambi is more sensitive to the expansion of the demographic tax base than to output size or FDI inflows, and that larger public spending does not automatically raise own-source revenue. The Jambi Provincial Government should strengthen population-based tax administration, improve the composition of spending, and link economic growth and FDI to local tax objects within the framework of the HKPD Law.

Keywords


local own-source revenue; GRDP; inflation; government expenditure; population; FDI; fiscal independence.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v10i2.2991

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