Risiko dan Return Emas vs IHSG: Strategi Investasi di Tengah Ketidakpastian Ekonomi

Choirus Saadah, Santi Merlinda

Abstract


This study examines differences in realized returns and risk between Antam gold and the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) from April 2022 to April 2025, a period associated with rising economic uncertainty. A quantitative comparative design is employed using secondary closing-price data. Daily prices are converted into monthly average closing prices, yielding 37 observations for each instrument. Returns are calculated from month-to-month price changes, while risk is measured as monthly volatility. After the Shapiro–Wilk and Levene tests indicate that parametric assumptions are not met, differences are tested using the Mann-Whitney procedure. The results show significant differences in returns ( ) and risk ( ). Gold’s average monthly return is 1.80 percent, higher than the IHSG’s −0.13 percent, whereas the IHSG exhibits higher average risk than gold. The findings support gold’s defensive profile in the sample period, but they are period-specific and do not establish gold as a safe haven in the technical sense. The implication is that gold and the IHSG should not be treated as perfect substitutes in allocation decisions during uncertainty of this kind.

Keywords


gold; IHSG; return; risk; economic uncertainty; investment

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v10i2.2609

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