Determinan Ekspor Negara ASEAN-3 ke China Sebelum dan Sesudah ACFTA

Aisyah Fayi Ivana, Siti Aisyah

Abstract


This study aims to determine whether the exports of 3 ASEAN member countries, namely Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam to China experienced significant changes both before and after the ACFTA (ASEAN – China Free Trade Area) agreement, and whether macroeconomic factors such as population, per capita income, foreign direct investment, exchange rates and inflation rates have different effects on exports to China. The findings in this study indicate that the exchange rate, per capita income and foreign direct investment have a positive and significant effect, while other factors such as population, inflation rates and the implementation of ACFTA have a negative and significant effect on the exports of 3 ASEAN countries to China.


Keywords


Export, ACFTA, ASEAN, China.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abasimi, I., Vorlak, L., Salim, A., Li, X., 2019. Determinants of Export Service in Selected West African Countries. International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, 5(2), 39–47.

Ahmad, S. A., Kaliappan, S. R., Ismail, N. W., 2017. Determinants of service export in selected developing Asian countries. International Journal of Business and Society, 18(1), 113–132.

Akdoğan, K., Bağır, Y. K., & Torun, H., 2023. Heterogeneous effect of exchange rates on firms’ exports: Role of labor intensity. Central Bank Review, 23(3).

Alkautsar, M., Susetyo, D., Yulianita, A., 2023. Kinerja Ekspor di Negara-Negara ASEAN. Jurnal Informatika Ekonomi Bisnis, 5(3), 833-837.

Alleyne, A., Zhang, Z., Mu, Y., 2020. Sustaining international trade with China: Does ACFTA improve ASEAN export efficiency? Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(15), 1–26.

Annur, C. M., 2023. Membandingkan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara ASEAN pada 2022, Siapa Tertinggi?, diakses melalui website https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2023/03/27/membandingkan-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-negara-asean-pada-2022-siapa-tertinggi

Aslam, M., 2012. The Impact of ASEAN- China Free Trade Area Agreement on ASEAN Manufacturing Industry. International Journal of China Studies, 3(1), 43–78.

Aslam, M., 2018. ASEAN-China FTA and the Impact on Indonesian Manufacturing Industry. JATI-Journal of Southeast Asian Sudies, 23(1), 13–46.

Asyono, A. H., & Samputra, P. L., 2023. Analysis of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) Cooperation from a Competitive Intelligence Perspective. International Journal of Social Service and Research, 3(7), 1762–1771.

Ayullah Kusuma, A., 2019. Dampak ASEAN-China free trade agreement (ACFTA) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 15(1), 1–14.

Bashir, M. A., Dengfeng, Z., Radulescu, M., Secara, C. G., Staciu-Tolea, C., Gong, Z., 2023. Sustainable FDI and comparative advantage for product export survival: a developing countries perspective. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja

Bustami, Ramanda, B., Hidayat, P., 2013. Analisis Daya Saing Produk Ekspor Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 1(2), 56–71.

Choi, M. S., 2020. A predictive effect of exchange rates on value-added free trade. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(21), 1–10.

DeSare, T., Caprioglio, D., 2012. Foreign investment: Types, methods and impacts.

Darmanto, E. B., Handoyo, R. D., Wibowo, W., 2021. The impact of Asean-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) agreement on Indonesia’s major plantation export commodities. Business: Theory and Practice, 22(1), 91–97.

Desmawan, D., Fitrianingsih, Falah, R., Drajat, N. A., Diani, N. W., Marlina, S. 2023. Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Kabupaten Tangerang Tahun 2019-2020. Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Manajemen Dan Bisnis (JEKOMBIS), 2(2), 150–157.

Dhasmana, A., 2013. Real Effective Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Sector Performance: Evidence from Indian Firms. SSRN Electronic Journal, May.

Dita Hapsari, R. P., Nurlaelah. 2020. Pengaruh Analisis Rasio Terhadap Ekspor Dengan ACFTA Sebagai Variabel Moderasi. Jurnal Studia Akuntansi Dan Bisnis (The Indonesian Journal of Management & Accounting), 8(1), 1–14.

Djemo, C. R. T., Eita, J. H., 2023. Modelling foreign exchange rate co-movement and its spatial dependence in emerging markets: a spatial econometrics approach. Empirical Economics.

Dritsaki, C., Dritsaki, M., 2012. Exports and FDI: A granger causality analysis in a heterogeneous panel. Economics Bulletin, 32(4), 3128–3139.

Efnita, Y., 2012. Pengaruh Asean China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Universitas Islam Riau, 19(2), 85–101.

Fitrianti, W. E., 2021. Factors Influencing The Indonesia’s Tea Export Volume Pasca ACFTA/ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement. JIKOSTIK – Jurnal Ilmiah Komputasi Dan Statistika, 1(1).

Gouveia, S., Correia, L., Martins, P., 2020. European integration and its effects on population in border and peripheral regions. Eastern Journal of European Studies, 11(November), 8–27.

Hanifah, U., 2022. Pengaruh Ekspor Dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia. Transekonomika: Akuntansi, Bisnis Dan Keuangan, 2(6), 107–126.

Hasanuddin, H., Roy, J., 2022. Pengaruh jumlah penduduk dan penanaman modal asing serta penanaman modal dalam negeri terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kesempatan kerja. Forum Ekonomi, 24(1), 103–110.

Hwi-Chang, M. 2016. Foreign Direct Investment A Global Perspective. New Jersey: World Scientific Publishing.

Indriyani, I., 2016. The Effect of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) on Indonesia Export. Etikonomi, 15(2), 125–138.

Ishikawa, K., 2021. The ASEAN Economic Community and ASEAN economic integration. Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies, 10(1), 24–41.

Lidwina, A., 2021. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 2020 Vietnam Terbaik di Asia Tenggara, diakses melalui website https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2021/02/17/pertumbuhan-ekonomi-2020-vietnam-terbaik-di-asia-tenggara

Mahmoodi, M., Mahmoodi, E., 2016. Foreign direct investment, exports and economic growth: Evidence from two panels of developing countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja , 29(1), 938–949.

Manan, S. A., Aisyah, S., 2023. Pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto, Tingkat Suku Bunga, Inflasi, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Foreign Direct Investment di Asean. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 7(1), 159.

Masniadi, R., 2012. Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk, Tabungan, dan Investasi Terhadap Tingkat Pendapatan Per Kapita Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 10(1), 69–80.

Motaghi, S., Saifi, A., Ebrahimi, S., 2021. The Relationship between Trade Openness and Inflation in Selected Developing and Developing Countries. Iranian Economic Research, 26(86), 190–212.

Narayan, P., Smyth, R., 2009. The effect of inflation and real wages on productivity: New evidence from a panel of G7 countries. Applied Economics, 41(10), 1285–1291.

Nguyen, L. T. M., Nguyen, T. T. P. 2024. Market Reaction to the Announcements of Free Trade Agreements: Evidence from Vietnam. Forum for Social Economics, 53(1), 18–34.

Nopiana, E., Habibah, Z., Putri, W. A., 2022. The Effect Of Exchange Rates, Exports And Imports On Economic Growth In Indonesia. Marginal : Journal Of Management, Accounting, General Finance And International Economic Issues, 1(3), 111–122.

Nurwulandari, A., Adnyana, I. M., Hasanudin. 2019. Did inter-regional trade agreements bring mutual benefits? An empirical scheme of Indonesian commodity exports in Asean-China Free Trade Area. International Journal of Financial Research, 10(6), 241–249.

Okabe, M., Urata, S. 2014. The impact of AFTA on intra-AFTA trade. Journal of Asian Economics, 35, 12–31.

Oo, T., Kueh, J., Hla, D. T. 2019. Determinants of Export Performance in ASEAN Region: Panel Data Analysis. International Business Research, 12(8), 1.

Parajuli, S. 2012. Examining the relationship between the exchange rate , foreign direct investment and trade.

Paramartha, I. P. G. D. S., Setyari, N. P. W., 2020. Pengaruh Produksi, Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat, Dan Inflasi Terhadap Ekspor Minyak Sawit Indonesia. E-Jurnal EP Unud, 9(12), 2792–2820.

Pratiwi, A. A., 2018. Analisis Pengaruh Kurs Dollar AS, PDB dan Inflasi Terhadap Ekspor Indonesia Tahun 2006.I-2016.IV.

Prayogi, A., 2023. Pengagruh Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Ekspor Negara Asean Saat Terjadi Pandemi Covid-19 Tahun 2020-2021. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 7(2), 332–345.

Purusa, N. A., & Istiqomah, N., 2018. Impact of FDI, COP, and Inflation to Export in Five ASEAN Countries. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 19(1), 94.

Puspita, R., Hidayat, K., Yulianto, E., 2015. Dampak domestik produksi kakao, harga kakao internasional, dan nilai tukar ekspor kakao Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat tahun 2010-2013. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya, 2(2), 15–83.

Romer, D., 1993. Openness and inflation: theory and evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(4), 869–903.

Rose, A. K., Yellen, J. L. 1989. Is there a J-curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), 53–68.

Sekretariat ASEAN. 2015. Indikator Utama Pilihan Selebaran Statistik ASEAN. Sekretariat ASEAN.

Shimizu, J., Sato, K., 2015. Abenomics , Yen Depreciation , Trade Deficit , and Export Competitiveness. The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, 1–32.

Silaban, R., 2022. Pengaruh Nilai Tukar dan Inflasi terhadap Ekspor Non Migas di Indonesia. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomika, 6(1), 50–59.

Sinn, H. W. 2014. Austerity, growth and inflation: Remarks on the Eurozone’s unresolved competitiveness problem. World Economy, 37(1), 1–13.

Situmorang, P. P., Agustina, N., 2022. Determinants of Service Export in ASEAN Member Countries. Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics, 2021(1), 458–470.

Sugiyono. 2017. Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, kualitatif dan R&D. Alfabeta.

Tadesse, T., Abafita, J., 2021. Determinants of global coffee trade: Does RTAs matter? Gravity model analysis. Cogent Economics and Finance, 9(1).

Tampubolon, J., 2019. Indonesian export performance and competitiveness in the Asean-China FTA. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 16, 120–129.

Thanh Trong, N., Thi Dong, N., Thi Ly, P., 2024. Population aging and economic growth: evidence from ASEAN countries. Cogent Business and Management, 11(1).

Tien, T. B., Van, H. T., 2020. Assessing economic development through trade relations and educational markets integration (the case of Vietnam within ACFTA). E3S Web of Conferences, 210, 1–9.

Tito, T. W., Niniek Imaningsih. 2023. Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Produksi Furniture Indonesia, Kurs, Pendapatan Perkapita Amerika Serikat Terhadap Ekspor Furniture Amerika Serikat. JEMSI (Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Dan Akuntansi), 9(5), 1808–1812.

Tyas, P. H. 2022. Analysis of Indonesia’s Exports in 1990-2019. Transekonomika Akuntansi, Bisnis Dan Keuangan, 2(2), 37–52

Wildan, M. A., Imron, M. A., Siswati, E., Rosyafah, S., 2021. Macroeconomic factors affecting natural gas export management. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(1), 639–644.

Wildani, F., Yuliati, L., Luthfi, A., 2017. Analisis Integrasi Ekonomi Indonesia-China Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia (Sebelum Dan Sesudah Acfta). Journal of Research In Economics and Management, 17(1), 161–182.

World Bank. 2024a. Adjusted net national income per capita (current US$) - Indonesia, Philippines, Viet Nam. The World Bank Database.

World Bank. 2024b. Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) - Indonesia, Philippines, Viet Nam. The World Bank Database.

World Bank. 2024c. Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) - Indonesia, Philippines, Viet Nam. The World Bank Database.

Yang, S., Martinez-Zarzoso, I. 2014. A panel data analysis of trade creation and trade diversion effects: The case of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area. China Economic Review, 29(29), 138–151.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v9i2.1890

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business Published by Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat
Adress: LPPM Universitas Batanghari, Jl.Slamet Ryadi, Broni-Jambi, Kec.Telanaipura, Kodepos: 36122, email: ekonomis.unbari@gmail.com, Phone: 0741-670700


Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.